J P Morgan, the multi-national banking and financial services company, has raised its estimate on Turkey’s economic growth for 2017, from 3.8% to 4.6%.
This is a result of the strong economic performance demonstrated during the year thus far and an expectation that this upward trend will continue – this comes despite the considerable ‘belt-tightening’ by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
According to this latest report, the main reasons for this upward trend are the sharp recovery in tourism, newly implemented investment incentives (including tax cuts and the credit guarantee mechanism), the increase in demand for exports (particularly from the EU), political calm and the increase in confidence resulting from this calm.
The 1st quarter growth rate of 5% exceeded all expectations and was attributed in the main to surging exports and increased industrial output.
Chairman of the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation (TÜRKONFED), Tarkan Kadooğlu, had previously highlighted that the 1st quarter performance had demonstrated the economic power and dynamism of the Turkish economy – he also said that, based on exports and other data, 5% - 6% growth should be attained for the 2nd quarter.
Renowned economist, Professor Kerem Alkin, was even more upbeat, claiming that if, as expected, the upward trend continues, the 2nd quarter could show a growth rate of between 6.45% - 7.25%.